AKROS · Indian Ocean

How we helped search for Konyukhov's boat

The rowing boat AKROS drifted across the Indian Ocean with nobody aboard for sixteen months. We worked out where it was being carried, and took part in the search alongside the expedition vessel, the fishermen and the Réunion coastal service. On 7 August 2026 the boat was returned to Fedor Konyukhov's team.

16 months
adrift with no crew
1,050 km
between the two sightings
20,000
particles in the drift run
7 Aug 2026
boat back with the team
The rowing boat AKROS: a narrow red hull on a Southern Ocean wave, one person on deck.
AKROS in the Southern Ocean, February 2025. Photo: Konyukhov expedition team, konyukhov.ru

What happened

How we calculated it

Three forces carry a boat with nobody aboard: the surface current, the wind pressing on the part of the hull above the water, and the waves. Search and rescue work calls the wind part leeway and states it as a percentage of wind speed. For a hard-shell survival craft with a drogue out it is about 1 %, without one about 3.5 %. In a 10 m/s wind that is 25 km a day, and over three months several hundred kilometres. Whether AKROS had a drogue out, nobody knew.

Currents

Copernicus Marine global analysis and forecast, 1/12°, hourly. Analysis to 3 August, forecast after that.

Wind

GFS, 0.25°, at 10 m. Past 3 August it is one deterministic forecast, with no ensemble.

Waves

Copernicus Marine, entering the calculation as Stokes drift.

Model

OpenDrift, the Leeway model with the Allen and Plourde coefficient tables. Rescue services use the same ones.

The Leeway catalogue holds seven entries built like AKROS: a hard, enclosed, self-righting shell. We ran all seven — 2,000 particles each from the May position, every particle with its own coefficients drawn from the published spread, and noise on the current and the wind. Over 78 days of free drift it became clear whose cloud passed closest to the July position, and those entries went into the main run.

Where we searched

From the July position we released 20,000 particles and ran them to 12 August. On 4 August the densest cell is at 22.2°S 53.5°E, with the boat carried west-north-west toward the southern tip of Madagascar. This is the map a search party gets: not a point, but the areas that hold the boat with a stated probability.

22.2°S
53.5°E
most likely point, 4 August
3,800 km²
50 % area on 4 August
16,000 km²
50 % area on 12 August
109,000 km²
95 % area on 12 August
44°E48°E52°E56°E60°E28°S24°S20°SMADAGASCARRéunionMauritiusA10 May 2026 · confirmedB27 Jul 2026 · from a shipC7 Aug · found1 050 km in 78 days · 0.16 m/s4 Aug · most likely cell12 Aug95 %50 %500 km
In blue, the 50, 75 and 95 % areas on 4 August. Dashed, the straight line between sightings A and B. In red, the 16-day forecast from B, with the cross at the most likely point on 4 August. Point C is where the boat was handed to the team on 7 August. Basemap: © OpenStreetMap contributors (tiles by openstreetmap.de), seamarks by OpenSeaMap.

The 50 % area is where a search starts, and it grew fourfold in eight days, which is why the run was repeated on fresh current and wind fields. The current forecast ran out around 12 August, and past that there was no point calculating.

Open the animated map →

What happens next

The boat will not go to sea again: the storms wrecked its equipment, and Oleg Konyukhov, who runs the expedition's shore team, said back in spring 2025 that the only place left for it is a museum. Across two expeditions with Fedor Konyukhov AKROS spent 269 days at sea — 154 in the Pacific in 2019 and 115 in the Southern Ocean in 2025 — and then drifted sixteen months more with nobody aboard.

The project team thanks the crew of the expedition vessel Ocean Tribe, the Réunion coastal service, the local fishermen and everyone who took part in the search.

An unmanned drift with a known ending is rare data: sixteen months from the evacuation point to Réunion. We will keep the model against it, so that next time the search area comes out smaller.